Thursday, October 15, 2009

Abundant skepticism is a sign that stocks will go a lot higher



I was looking around at some of the news stories today following yesterday's breach of Dow 10,000 and here's a smattering of what I saw:


Dow Breaks 10,000: Don't Get Caught Up in "Euphoria"...


An Equity Bubble in the Making?


Concerns About the Tone of the Market's Current Advance


Does the Good News Point to a Market Top?


U.S. Stock Markets Are Disconnected from Reality


Dow Theory: Party While It Lasts


Dow 10k: The Higher They Rise, The Harder They Fall



And here's some more good news...

From the Daily Treasury Statement the total take for employment taxes, as of the 8th statement day of the month (most recent data) is:

Oct: $53,392
Sep: $50,405
Aug: $54,188
Jul: $48,991

(All figures in millions $)

So, there appears to be an improving trend in employment tax deposits over the past three months. This coincides with weekly unemployment claims down in 5 of the last 6 weeks.

What the stock market/economy skeptics fail to realize, or seem to be ignoring, is that any improvement in the job picture, if and when that happens (and I think we will see it soon) has not been priced into this rally yet. So far the rally has been based on earnings from higher productivity (cost cutting) and not job growth.

This likely means there's another, whole entire leg up still to come. Dow 12,000?

5 comments:

googleheim said...

i'd get an ETF on oil, because the old linkage between dollar, oil, commodities, china, and the whole gammut is all rolled up together again.

it COULD have been different as we know - a very strong dollar with a robust economy provided they did things differently.

however, this is the way it is for now until the zombie banks are exposed.

the government is holding on to massive foreclosures and will make money off them some how like they did with Resolution Trust Corp after the savings and loan crisis of the 80's

MortgageAngel said...

Mike,
Is it possible that the total take for employment taxes is increasing due is because of the government jobs being created?

It's like a piece to a different puzzle.

Based on what I see here in California, businesses in the private sector are seeing lower sales, revenues, laying off, cutting hours and set back on plans for expansion.

Respectfully yours,
Jill

rge270 said...

Per Mike "From the Daily Treasury Statement the total take for [Income &] employment taxes, as of the 8th statement day of the month is:

Oct: $53,392
Sep: $50,405 (net month: $125,216)
Aug: $54,188 (net month: $126,389)
Jul: $48,991 (net month: $131,417)
(All figures in millions $)

There are lots of possible conclusions from this, not just the one Mike draws.

The Sept statement http://www.fms.treas.gov/webservices/show?ciURL=/dts/09101400.pdf
says, in Table IV, "Withheld Income & Employment Taxes .. This Month to Date" = $125,216 [million]

2008 est GDP ~$14.26 trillion CIA - World Factbook

~$130 Bil/month public currency recovered by income/employment taxes? That's ~1/10th of even monthly GDP of ~$1188 Bil/month? Why even bother? That's a lot of net record-keeping & enforcement burdens too.

Matt Franko said...

rge,
I get your point, why bother. That burden mostly falls on the lower income j6p's also because of the FICA taxes that stop around $100k.
More wealth flowing to the ultra wealthy as per the points Mike's been making here.

Mike Norman said...

Jill,

It could be. It could also be that average weekly hours are up, which would mean companies are not hiring necessarily, just making their workers work more hours. It's also good to have some perspective: the total employment tax take for the 10 statement days in October 2008 was $70.4 billion and this year it's still significantly below that figure at $62.9 billion.

-Mike