Sunday, October 4, 2009

Federal Gov't FY 2009 Increase in "Net Spending"


The table above identifies the Federal Government full year FY 2009 increase in what I've termed "net spending".


I've taken the total withdrawals out of the Treasury's Federal Reserve Account, and subtracted amounts for Treasury securities redemptions, and other purchases of "financial assets". This remainder amount should be more accurate in determining the true year over year increase in
Federal spending that could have an effect on aggregate demand in the US economy. I've compared the 2009 total to the 2008 total.


The $629B increase represents about 4.4% of the previous year US GDP.

6 comments:

Mike Norman said...

Matt,

Nice job! Should (or has) make (made) a difference!

-Mike

googleheim said...

Excellent post.

I could make this a postcard, and I would send a copy to Susie Gharib to help her out.

This country could never operate itself only on tax revenues, just look at the ledger.

Taxes are means to up regulate and get things on a level playing field.

But it will not fill in the field's craters that were left over from damages of the down regulated times.

The Joker said...

Matt, what is the website from which you are getting this data?

Matt Franko said...

Joker,

Here's a link to the Treasury's Daily Treasury Statement that Mike put me on to some time ago.

Just look at table 2 right hand column for withdrawals. I have been tracking the TARP and GSE investments and FDIC throughout the year. Any other questions just post up here.

I think what would be significant would be if the non-Govt sector was to break even (0% GDP), then this Govt sector increase alone would give us almost 4.4% positive GDP, I dont think that is currently discounted. Does anyone have an idea for non-govt sector GDP? It's probably negative but I'll try to document it. matt

The Joker said...

Matt, I see how you arrived at every number except the 363,723 for TARP. I'm looking at the September 30, 2009 Daily Treasure Statement and I don't see the 363,723 for TARP. Where did you get that number from?

Matt Franko said...

Joker,
It looks like they dont include the line item if there is no transaction for the specific day of the report. So you have to keep going back day by day until you see something post for that day. for Tarp you have to go back to Sept 18th and Tarp had a transaction that day and you can see the year to date total.
If you open 2 tabs on your browser
and put Sept 30 2008 in one and 2009 in another and bounce back & forth you can see where the increased spending occured YoY. it looks to me like Defense, Education and Medicare had really high increases YoY, some others also. Matt