Saturday, June 25, 2011

Latest 3 Months Fiscal Posture

March/April/May 2010:

Total Treasury Account Withdrawals: $2,858
Minus Treasury Redemptions: $1,693
Equals Net Treasury Withdrawals: $1,165

Total Treasury Account Deposits: $3,038
Minus Treasuries Issued: $2,240
Equals Net Treasury Account Deposits: $798

M/A/M 2010 Deficit: $367B for the quarter

March/April/May 2011:

Total Treasury Account Withdrawals: $2,954
Minus Treasury Redemptions: $1,812
Equals Net Treasury Account Withdrawals: $1,142

Total Treasury Account Deposits: $2,883
Minus Treasuries Issued: $2,005
Equals Net Treasury Account Deposits: $878

M/A/M 2011 Deficit: $264B for the quarter

So YoY for the 3 months ended May, the fiscal deficit has decreased by $103B (367B to 264B), due to a increase in deposits (either tax receipts, or perhaps the Fed refunding it's outsized "profits" due to QE to Treasury this year), as net withdrawals (spending) are actually down, nominal, by $22B, YoY for these same 3 months.

Total loans and leases (TLL) in bank credit rose by $9B over this same 3 month time period this year to $6,725B, but at the end of May 2010, total loans and leases stood at $6,893B, so hard to tell what TLL did YoY for the 3 months ended May, but we at least can see that TLL have collapsed by $168B (that's baaaaad) YoY for the year ended May.

With TLL still contracting YoY, and total government spending down $22B, it looks like we are looking at a negative GDP number for these 3 months, unless net imports have decreased by a greater amount.

This is pretty bad when the best thing we can look forward to is a hope that we imported less to get us some US GDP "growth".

5 comments:

The Joker said...

Matt, can you give me the website you visited to obtain this data?

Thanks!

Matt Franko said...

Joker,

I go to the Daily Treasury Statements where they have the month-to-date data on US Treasury withdrawals here:

link_http://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html

And the Feds H.8 report here for bank credit data:

link_http://federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/statisticsdata.htm

got all of this thru Mike over the years....

Resp,

beowulf said...

This is pretty bad when the best thing we can look forward to is a hope that we imported less to get us some US GDP "growth".

That's not happening, 1Q 2011 trade deficit ($571 billion) was up against both 1Q and 4Q 2010.
Obama was foolish to let the deficit zombies box him on the budget deficit, the only option it leaves him is jumping on the trade deficit (and its enormous demand leakage) with both feet. WTO Article 12 does allow countries running trade deficits to take steps to restore equilibrium.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/272372-u-s-trade-deficit-grows-driving-gdp-growth-down-in-q1

This can be done with tariffs or (per Warren Buffett) an import certificate market. But both of those require Congressional approval, good luck with that. There is, however, a third option. Ravi Batra has long recommended a dual exchange rate system. A NY Fed paper found an "equivalence of tariffs-cum-subsidies and official exchange rate devaluations under dual exchange markets".
http://books.google.com/books?id=bX3XpV1wM64C&pg=PA206&lpg=PA206
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/002219969390053Z

And that is something the President himself can direct Tsy and the Fed (as a designated "agency") to implement by executive order.
Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund on orderly exchange arrangements and a stable system of exchange rates, the Secretary or an agency designated by the Secretary, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities the Secretary considers necessary.
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/31/usc_sec_31_00005302----000-.html

TomatoBasil said...

The interesting part was the revenue side was up 80 bln while spending only down by 22b. I was hoping they had delayed a 100 bln plus on current liabilities and then paid out the funds rapidly on debt ceiling raising which could give real and financial markets a nice demand bounce out of the ditch. Doesn't look promising.

The Joker said...

Thanks, Matt!!