Thursday, April 5, 2012

John Carney — A Timely Banking Lesson From the Paul Volcker Era


A dramatic change in the conduct of monetary policy that occurred in 1979 can shed some light on the current confusion over the role of reserves in bank lending.


In the fall of 1979, inflation was running at more than 10 percent a year. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman, believed that the usual procedure of gradual interest rate increases were inadequate. In the first place, it was proving difficult—perhaps impossible—to determine the “right” level of interest rates that would stem inflation. And some at the Fed believed interest rate manipulation had just become ineffective.

 So Volcker dramatically changed how monetary policy was implemented.

On October 6, 1979, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin targeting bank reserves rather than the federal funds rate in order to curb inflation and “speculative excesses in financial, foreign exchange, and commodity markets.” This meant that the Fed would allow interest rates to vary much more widely and climb much higher in reaction to changes in demand for money and bank reserves.
Read it at CNBC NetNeet
A Timely Banking Lesson From the Paul Volcker Era
by John Carney | Senior Editor

Explains why the Fed doesn't target quantity and let price float anymore.

10 comments:

Ramanan said...

Nice post.

A good account of the Monetarists' experiments and failure is given in Marc Lavoie's

Foundations of Post-Keynesian Economic Analysis

http://www.amazon.com/Foundations-Post-Keynesian-Economic-Directions-Economics/dp/1852783222/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0

Matt Franko said...

Does anybody know how high rates went before they shut this down?

Were the uber high rates of the Volcker era set by the Fed after this 'experiment' got shut down?

Resp,

Leverage said...

Good summary of the history and rationale behind why monetarists and PK are wrong on this.

Anonymous said...

John Carney should email this article to Paul Krugman.

John Zelnicker said...

@Matt -- I seem to remember that the prime rate got to 18% which would indicate a fed funds rate of about 15%.

Ken said...

Not clear to me if the Fed intended rates to get as high as they did, or if they just lost control because of quantity targeting policy.

Legend is that Volcker did it on purpose to crush inflation, with a wink and nod from Reagan.

Detroit Dan said...

Wow. That was an excellent article. Thanks...

Matt Franko said...

John,

Thanks, but perhaps more specifically, were IRs just "let" to run up to 18% because of this 'experiment'?

I do remember the 18% rates, but I thought Volcker SET them there, ie he didnt just 'let them go there'...

Did they shut this 'experiment' down in '79, and then when the rates went to 18%, in 80/81, that was due to 'normal' Fed operations ie they went back to setting price and letting quantity adjust??


Resp,

Matt Franko said...

Here's a link to a chart of the 90-day bill:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EIRX+Interactive#symbol=%5Eirx;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

If it loads for you, you can see rates spike in '79, then drop, then go back up in '80-'81.

So perhaps the first spike was due to this "experiment' and the second one was due to Volcker...

Resp,

John Zelnicker said...

Matt -- Your research is obviously better than my memory. Volcker was definitely trying "crush" inflation by raising rates in the early eighties. I was unsure how long the "experiment" lasted.