Ray Fair, a professor of economics at Yale University, who has come up with his own model to predict elections.PBS News Hour
Obama or Romney? How Accurate Are Economic Models?
Paul Solmon
Ray Fair, a professor of economics at Yale University, who has come up with his own model to predict elections.PBS News Hour
2 comments:
Based on:
"RAY FAIR: Right at this moment, it's 49.5 percent of the two-party vote for Obama. Could be 50.1 percent, if the economy really does quite a bit better in the third quarter than I'm predicting it will, but somewhere around 50 percent. And so that's not going to change.
PAUL SOLMAN: And 2.5 to 3 percentage points of error - something like that?"
I think his model is probably worth much less than its scope.
Couldn't a school age kid, off the top of his head, make a similar "estimate" - therefore what is the worth of his model and all the variables he is likely using?
Post a Comment