Sunday, January 11, 2015

Chris Dillow — Murdoch's common error


A cognitive bias known as the outgroup homogeneity effect.

Stumbling and Mumbling
Murdoch's common error
Chris Dillow | Investors Chronicle

1 comment:

Ryan Harris said...

Another common error is assuming homogeneity of variance.

It is easy to prove or disprove, look at the recent opinion polls of Muslims around the world and whether broad majorities support something like Suicide bombing of innocent civilians to defend Islam.

According to a pew poll of people that identify themselves as Muslims, in the United States, few Muslims, only about 22% consider suicide bombings of innocent civilians to defend Islam justified. As it turns out, the rest of the world is more divided, places like Egypt and Nigeria and Afghanistan, large, large majorities think suicide attacks on civilians are justified. Gallup polls found very similar results. Technically speaking, in statistics, 22% we have in the United States even isn't really an "outgroup."

So "The Common Error" isn't really so common after all. The common error appears rather to be that Dillow assumes everyone shares values and that Muslims around the world are similar to the Muslims he is acquainted with that don't think violence is justified. Notice this doesn't poll Christians. There are probably alarming levels of Christians that find various types of violence like bombing completely OK too. But that doesn't change the fact that many, often majorities of Muslims believe in Suicide bombings to defend Islam.

It sounds good to say that majorities of people want peace and that only a few radicals exist, but it just isn't true. There are real differences between populations in the world. To gloss over the differences with 'feel good' articles about how we are really all the same peace loving people, sharing values and that a few people are just bad-apples, simply doesn't acknowledge the reality that many, many people are oppressed and isolated and hold very, very different values and perceptions. Overcoming these cultural differences won't go smoothly especially as other polls show, communities of Muslim people within Europe tend to be quite insular compared to the rest of the population and tend to marry and interact primarily with other Muslims. These are difficult social problems to overcome that may take a very long time to change.