Friday, February 13, 2015

Rakesh Krishnan Simha — Mobile Agni: Game changer or risky gambit?

In a giant leap for India’s deterrence capability, the country recently conducted the third consecutive successful launch of the Agni V strategic missile. Road mobile strategic missiles were developed by Russia because they are more survivable but considering the security environment in South Asia, it could be a risky option.…

With the third consecutive successful launch of the Agni V strategic missile, India is on the cusp of attaining strategic deterrence. This is the big boys club where you have enough missiles for a devastating second strike after suffering a full-on nuclear attack.
 
The aspect of the missile that will keep the Chinese – among others – awake at night is that it was cold launched from a hermetically sealed canister mounted on a tractor-erector-launcher (TEL). “Launch from a canister integrated with a TEL enables launch in minutes as compared with a silo – or open – launch. It also has advantages of higher reliability, longer shelf life, less maintenance and enhanced mobility,” says the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO). 
A mobile system will allow India to keep the Agni Vs constantly moving along its road network. They can also be hidden off the road, in secret bunkers or forests, thereby keeping the enemy guessing all the time. Throw in several dozen dummy canisters and trucks, and you add more uncertainty about the exact whereabouts of the real Agni V missiles. 
Russia was the first country to develop road and rail mobile ICBMs. Whereas America has its nuclear triad (silo-based, submarine-based and air-launched nuclear weapons), Russia has a four-pronged approach with its land mobile ICBMs. 
“By dispersing a portion of its land-based nuclear arsenal throughout its great wilderness, Russia makes it very hard for the US to hit all of its nuclear emplacements during a 'first strike' scenario,” says the military website Foxtrot Alpha. “This greatly enhances Russia's land-based nuclear arsenal's deterrence factor. Just the threat of a second-strike ability, not just from Russia's SSBN submarine force that America works very hard to track, but from road-mobile ICBMs, and very capable ones at that, makes Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) a continuing reality.”… 
But what works for Russia – or for that matter China, which also has a road mobile ICBM – may not necessarily work for India. During the Soviet years, Russia was not an easy place to travel, with its own citizens requiring passes to travel internally. There were regions and cities that were off limits to most civilians, forget foreigners. Under such circumstances, one could operate these rail and road mobile ICBMs, without the threat of terrorists or spies trying to sabotage or infiltrate these missile groups.… 
Providing extra security for land mobile ICBMs will only compromise secrecy and thereby defeat the purpose of having them on mobile platforms. Considering that India is a soft state where radicalised groups brag about their aim to destabilise India and also openly associate with jehadis, it might be worthwhile to rethink the decision and look at launching more ICBMs from sea-based platforms.…
While the government press releases continues to describe the Agni V as a 5500 km range IRBM or intermediate range ballistic missile, Chander described the missile as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). 
Chander was asked to resign hours before the launch, so the missile man really had nothing to lose – and everything to gain – by revealing the missile’s true scope. In fact, the Chinese – who were observing the test – believe India deliberately flew the missile in a flat trajectory to curtail its range to 5500 km whereas the Agni V is, in their opinion, capable of 7000-8000 km. 
With incremental increases, the Agni’s arc will sooner than later cover the US mainland. You see, it all comes down to this: when you are powerful everybody thinks you are great and your jokes are funny too.
Russia & India Report
Mobile Agni: Game changer or risky gambit?
Rakesh Krishnan Simha

2 comments:

Dan Lynch said...

Insane. You can't win a nuclear war.

But on the other hand, if you don't have nukes, you have to kiss up to America or else we will invade you or at least arrange a "pro-democracy" coup.

Magpie said...

If the missiles have a 5,500 km range, they just fall short of Australia. With luck, maybe they could hit Perth.

If, at the other hand, the Chinese are right and the missiles' range is around 7K to 8K km, all of Australia, including Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and Canberra, would be easily within reach.

Twelve-ten years ago, the News Ltd buffoons were all over the place claiming that Saddam Hussein could hit Australia with WMD.

Today, they say nothing and demand Australia to sell India uranium (together with SA Labor premier).