Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Jeff Cox — Wall Street's mystery: Where's all the economic growth?

The reason why the U.S. economy is so susceptible to dollar strength and other obstacles may be that the post-financial crisis recovery isn't really what it's cracked up to be.
That's the emerging view from Wall Street consensus coupled with economic data that suggest the long-awaited V-shaped rebound has yet to take hold.…
Citi's Lee puts much of the blame on U.S. dollar strength for the economic weakness. The greenback has surged more than 22 percent over the past year against a trade-weighted basket of its global competitors.

In total, Lee sees currency headwinds shaving as much as 1.25 percentage points off domestic growth, and more generally speaking believes the factor is not appreciated enough by economists and strategists trying to parse out what is ailing the U.S. this year.  
Lee also said the current state of the job market is a problem. Employment growth "has been too slow," he said, and concentrated in low-wage sectors to the point where workers in the 1970s were making more than those today when using inflation-adjusted figures.

"With so many low-wage jobs created, there may not be sufficient income growth to boost demand and GDP growth beyond the current tepid pace," he wrote.…
"It's the demand, stupid."

CNBC NetNet
Wall Street's mystery: Where's all the economic growth?
Jeff Cox

No comments: