After a gutsy vote by the Greek people will Dumb and Dumber (Tsipras, Varoufakis) end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
I'm hearing that Varoufakis has come out saying, "Grexit is out of the question."
What the hell is wrong with these guys?
It's like the nerd in High School, who falls in love with the Prom Queen and she agrees to go out with him. They date for a while, but all along she abuses him. The abuses grow and she's shitting on him all the time now: open, hostile, vile abuse and the dude still wants to be in love with her.
WTF, man!!! Have a little dignity.
8 comments:
Why the greek government rejects a grexit
While getting out of the euro is definitely the better option, the mechanics of getting there from here are not so simple.
Naked Capitalism rejects Grexit far more vehemently than the Greek government, than Varoufakis does. On the fundamental legal framework NC takes a unique, strange and very wrong position. There is scaremongering there about Greece starving - while the Greek farmers say Greece can feed itself. More and more, it has been presenting only one side of a debate, always exaggerating difficulties.
Basically the only genuine mechanical difficulty I see involve tourism - many small retail transactions - and there seem to be plenty of workarounds that have been used before. This is not the first currency union to disintegrate, the first time that currencies have been started on short notice.
I think people should look more closely at the not-so-in-love-with-the-Euro things that Varoufakis occasionally says. And realize that he, Syriza, Greece is trying to act within the EU legal framework as much as it can - while recognizing that the Troika is systematically violating the EU treaties and worse. Greece's strategy is not entirely unlike "but please, Br'er Fox, don't fling me in dat brier-patch."
Already according to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, plans are under way to print Euro 20 bills as well as California style IOU's. The E20 bills allow for the banks to continue functioning, while the California style IOU's lay the groundwork for a new currency. At the same time, there will be a legal battle in the European courts.
Mike, I appreciate your sentiments, but there are practical issues. Until now, the Greek Central Bank was not Syriza's friend. Now, maybe it is. We will see. Much depends upon how much support they have from the bureaucracy. This landslide vote may well persuade the bureaucracy. Remember that they could have done this a week ago, but I do not think that they had the support of the CBG bureacrats. But now possibly they do!
Of the two choices between leaving or being kick out, I think getting kicked out might play significantly better politically in Greece, but I doubt that is going to happen.
If Syriza is auguring for that end by repudiating entirely the sadistic austerian noose, then Greece will likely for all intents and purposes be booted, but not explicitly. They'll be starved to death, literally. If YV and Tsipras roll over with an unsustainable deal, then they will be rolled out of office faster than you can say Herr Merkel by their own plebs. Not sure what happens next in that vacuum.
The Naked Capitalism critique Calgacus refers to above is ridiculous. "Oh noes! The ATM's stopped working! We need to do a big software project!" Seriously? During the 1970s (?), the Irish banking system was shut down due to a strike. The economy functioned by having pub owners (publicans) act as intermediaries. The Greeks will figure out workarounds, even if it requires using wacky things like Bitcoin.
Also, it would have probably been a bad idea for Syriza to just attempt to pull out of the euro. This could have been construed as an illegal act, and the Greek military might have used it as an excuse to take over. By following the rules, and having a big fat referendum win, the possibility of such an outcome is greatly reduced.
Unkown,
I know there are practical issues. There always are. Leaders say, "We are going this way" and they move. They figure it out. These guys just won a huge victory. Roll with the momentum.
Merkel will find her inner political mojo over night and realize that she is on the wrong side of history and wrong side of politics. She will consider the spirit of European solidarity shown Germany in 1953 when Greece and the other nations canceled German debt, and admit austerity was wrong. Instead she will announce tomorrow that Germany will propose a treaty cancels 50% of Greek Debt and a massive program of investment to boost growth and real productivity in Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Eastern European nations and sell it to Schauble and the German voters by telling them it is their turn to pay back Europe for all the good will they've shared with Germany over the last century.
Probably not... but she is known to turn around when the polls change and the winds of change blowing across Europe like they have not in decades.
Jez if it isn't obvious to Syriza by now that the Eurozone is run by a bunch of Vampire Squids and they should run like hell to escape their slimy tentacles what will it take for them to engage with reality!
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